Playoff Projections
Monte Carlo simulation ¡ 10,000 iterations ¡ Generated Unknown
Playoff Spots
12
Division Winners
6
Wild Cards
6
Simulations
10,000
Playoff Probability Rankings
Click column headers to sort
| # | Team | Division | Wins | Playoff% | Division% | WildCard% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York Yankees | AL East | 96.2 | 89.5% | 54.6% | 34.9% |
| 2 | Milwaukee Brewers | NL Central | 97.0 | 89.0% | 53.7% | 35.4% |
| 3 | Philadelphia Phillies | NL East | 94.7 | 85.6% | 69.1% | 16.5% |
| 4 | Chicago Cubs | NL Central | 94.6 | 83.3% | 38.0% | 45.3% |
| 5 | Los Angeles Dodgers | NL West | 94.0 | 82.2% | 53.8% | 28.4% |
| 6 | Boston Red Sox | AL East | 91.3 | 74.2% | 26.2% | 48.0% |
| 7 | Texas Rangers | AL West | 89.9 | 69.7% | 41.5% | 28.1% |
| 8 | Seattle Mariners | AL West | 89.6 | 68.8% | 39.8% | 29.0% |
| 9 | San Diego Padres | NL West | 90.3 | 67.0% | 30.5% | 36.5% |
| 10 | Detroit Tigers | AL Central | 88.2 | 66.5% | 52.9% | 13.6% |
| 11 | Toronto Blue Jays | AL East | 87.3 | 55.7% | 12.6% | 43.1% |
| 12 | New York Mets | NL East | 86.8 | 50.5% | 21.2% | 29.3% |
| 13 | Kansas City Royals | AL Central | 83.5 | 41.6% | 26.5% | 15.1% |
| 14 | Cincinnati Reds | NL Central | 85.1 | 40.7% | 7.4% | 33.3% |
| 15 | Houston Astros | AL West | 84.3 | 40.7% | 16.2% | 24.5% |
| 16 | Tampa Bay Rays | AL East | 83.9 | 37.6% | 6.0% | 31.6% |
| 17 | San Francisco Giants | NL West | 83.8 | 34.3% | 9.2% | 25.1% |
| 18 | Cleveland Guardians | AL Central | 80.6 | 26.9% | 15.2% | 11.8% |
| 19 | Atlanta Braves | NL East | 81.8 | 26.7% | 9.1% | 17.6% |
| 20 | Arizona Diamondbacks | NL West | 82.1 | 26.4% | 6.5% | 19.9% |
| 21 | Oakland Athletics | AL West | 75.3 | 9.4% | 2.4% | 7.0% |
| 22 | Baltimore Orioles | AL East | 73.4 | 7.7% | 0.5% | 7.1% |
| 23 | Minnesota Twins | AL Central | 73.2 | 7.6% | 3.7% | 3.9% |
| 24 | St. Louis Cardinals | NL Central | 75.1 | 6.9% | 0.6% | 6.3% |
| 25 | Pittsburgh Pirates | NL Central | 73.2 | 4.5% | 0.4% | 4.1% |
| 26 | Chicago White Sox | AL Central | 70.3 | 3.5% | 1.7% | 1.8% |
| 27 | Miami Marlins | NL East | 70.8 | 2.5% | 0.6% | 2.0% |
| 28 | Los Angeles Angels | AL West | 64.5 | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.4% |
| 29 | Washington Nationals | NL East | 62.2 | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| 30 | Colorado Rockies | NL West | 51.6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Division Races
AL East
New York Yankees
96.2W
54.6%
Boston Red Sox
91.3W
26.2%
Toronto Blue Jays
87.3W
12.6%
Tampa Bay Rays
83.9W
6.0%
Baltimore Orioles
73.4W
0.5%
AL Central
Detroit Tigers
88.2W
52.9%
Kansas City Royals
83.5W
26.5%
Cleveland Guardians
80.6W
15.2%
Minnesota Twins
73.2W
3.7%
Chicago White Sox
70.3W
1.7%
AL West
Texas Rangers
89.9W
41.5%
Seattle Mariners
89.6W
39.8%
Houston Astros
84.3W
16.2%
Oakland Athletics
75.3W
2.4%
Los Angeles Angels
64.5W
0.1%
NL East
Philadelphia Phillies
94.7W
69.1%
New York Mets
86.8W
21.2%
Atlanta Braves
81.8W
9.1%
Miami Marlins
70.8W
0.6%
Washington Nationals
62.2W
0.0%
NL Central
Milwaukee Brewers
97.0W
53.7%
Chicago Cubs
94.6W
38.0%
Cincinnati Reds
85.1W
7.4%
St. Louis Cardinals
75.1W
0.6%
Pittsburgh Pirates
73.2W
0.4%
NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers
94.0W
53.8%
San Diego Padres
90.3W
30.5%
San Francisco Giants
83.8W
9.2%
Arizona Diamondbacks
82.1W
6.5%
Colorado Rockies
51.6W
0.0%
Wild Card Race
AL Wild Card
48.0%
29.0%
43.1%
15.1%
24.5%
31.6%
11.8%
7.0%
7.1%
3.9%
NL Wild Card
45.3%
36.5%
29.3%
33.3%
25.1%
17.6%
19.9%
6.3%
4.1%
2.0%
Win Distribution
Average probability across all teams by win range ¡ Bars past ~87 wins indicate playoff-caliber seasons