Minnesota Twins
MIN • 2026 Season Prediction
2026 Outlook
🟡 Wild Card Bubble 8% playoff probabilityThe Minnesota Twins enter the 2026 season hoping to recapture the magic of their division-winning campaigns from a few years ago. While their roster boasts some impressive talent, there are also several question marks that could keep them from returning to the playoffs.
The headliner is undoubtedly Byron Buxton, the perennial All-Star who, when healthy, is one of the most dynamic players in the game. Buxton's combination of power, speed, and elite defense makes him a true game-changer. Joining him in the lineup will be first baseman Josh Bell, who provides a steady presence and pop in the middle of the order. However, the Twins will need more production from players like Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach to offset the potential decline of veterans like Bell.
On the pitching side, the Twins will lean heavily on the trio of Joe Ryan, Pablo López, and Anthony Banda. Ryan and López have proven to be a formidable 1-2 punch, but the team's depth beyond that is concerning. The bullpen is also an area of uncertainty, which could put a lot of pressure on the starters to go deep into games.
Given the roster's mix of strengths and weaknesses, a projection of 73 wins and a 7.6% playoff probability seems reasonable for the Twins in 2026. While they may find themselves in the wild card hunt, they'll likely need several things to break their way to secure a postseason berth.
Strengths
Weaknesses
⚾ Kalshi Markets
View all →Will Minnesota win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship?
KXMLB-26-MIN
Market Price
1¢
Model Prob
0.3%
Edge
-0.7%
Bid/Ask
0¢/1¢
Will Minnesota be the 2026 AL Central Division Winner
KXMLBALCENT-26-MIN
Market Price
8¢
Model Prob
3.7%
Edge
-4.8%
Bid/Ask
8¢/9¢
Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers
KXMLBPLAYOFFS-26-MIN
Market Price
16¢
Model Prob
7.6%
Edge
-8.9%
Bid/Ask
15¢/18¢
Will Minnesota win at least 60 games this season?
KXMLBWINS-MIN-26-T60
Market Price
72¢
Model Prob
94.7%
Edge
+22.7%
Bid/Ask
72¢/100¢
Will Minnesota win at least 55 games this season?
KXMLBWINS-MIN-26-T55
Market Price
78¢
Model Prob
98.7%
Edge
+20.6%
Bid/Ask
78¢/100¢
Will Minnesota win at least 80 games this season?
KXMLBWINS-MIN-26-T80
Market Price
38¢
Model Prob
22.8%
Edge
-14.7%
Bid/Ask
28¢/47¢
Will Minnesota win at least 65 games this season?
KXMLBWINS-MIN-26-T65
Market Price
77¢
Model Prob
84.8%
Edge
+7.8%
Bid/Ask
64¢/90¢
Will Minnesota win at least 85 games this season?
KXMLBWINS-MIN-26-T85
Market Price
16¢
Model Prob
9.1%
Edge
-6.4%
Bid/Ask
7¢/24¢
Will Minnesota win at least 70 games this season?
KXMLBWINS-MIN-26-T70
Market Price
60¢
Model Prob
66.9%
Edge
+6.4%
Bid/Ask
59¢/62¢
Will Minnesota win at least 75 games this season?
KXMLBWINS-MIN-26-T75
Market Price
44¢
Model Prob
43.9%
Edge
-0.6%
Bid/Ask
42¢/47¢
Predicted Wins
73
±2.7 standard deviation
Range: 69–78 wins (95% CI)
Kalshi Market Line
N/A
No market available
Edge vs Market
—
No edge calculation
Model Confidence
73%
Based on feature quality, historical accuracy, and prediction uncertainty