⚾ Kalshi MLB Futures

Live prediction market prices vs model probabilities. Edge = Model − Market.

Updated: 2026-03-19T10:48

300 markets tracked

World Series

Division

Playoffs

Win Totals

210

Total Buy Signals

133

🏆

Top WS Buy: MIL

Mkt

2¢

Model

9¢

Edge

+6.3%

🏅

Top Div Buy: PHI

NL East

Mkt

30¢

Model

69¢

Edge

+39.1%

🎯

Top Playoff Buy: MIL

Mkt

50¢

Model

89¢

Edge

+38.5%

📊

Top Win Total: MIL T90+

Mkt

38¢

Model

81¢

Edge

+42.8%

World Series Champion Markets

30 markets · 5 buy signals

Team	Pred Wins	Playoff %	Market	Model	Edge	Signal
LAD	94	82%	30¢	7.4%	-22.1%	STRONG FADE
MIL	97	89%	2¢	8.8%	+6.3%	STRONG BUY
SEA	90	69%	11¢	5.3%	-5.7%	STRONG FADE
BAL	73	8%	4¢	0.3%	-3.2%	FADE
CHC	95	83%	4¢	7.6%	+3.1%	BUY
TEX	90	70%	2¢	5.5%	+3.0%	BUY
NYM	87	50%	6¢	3.6%	-2.9%	FADE
ATL	82	27%	4¢	1.6%	-2.9%	FADE
SDP	90	67%	2¢	5.3%	+2.8%	BUY
PHI	95	86%	6¢	7.9%	+2.4%	BUY
TOR	87	56%	6¢	4.0%	-1.5%	HOLD
TBR	84	38%	1¢	2.4%	+1.4%	HOLD
PIT	73	5%	2¢	0.2%	-1.3%	HOLD
CIN	85	41%	2¢	2.7%	+1.2%	HOLD
COL	52	0%	1¢	0.0%	-1.0%	HOLD
WSN	62	0%	1¢	0.0%	-1.0%	HOLD
LAA	64	1%	1¢	0.0%	-1.0%	HOLD
MIA	71	3%	1¢	0.1%	-0.9%	HOLD
CWS	70	4%	1¢	0.1%	-0.9%	HOLD
HOU	84	41%	4¢	2.6%	-0.9%	HOLD
SFG	84	34%	2¢	2.2%	+0.7%	HOLD
STL	75	7%	1¢	0.3%	-0.7%	HOLD
MIN	73	8%	1¢	0.3%	-0.7%	HOLD
BOS	91	74%	6¢	6.1%	+0.6%	HOLD
ARI	82	26%	1¢	1.6%	+0.6%	HOLD
OAK	75	9%	1¢	0.4%	-0.6%	HOLD
DET	88	66%	4¢	4.9%	+0.4%	HOLD
NYY	96	90%	8¢	8.6%	+0.1%	HOLD
KCR	84	42%	2¢	2.6%	+0.1%	HOLD
CLE	81	27%	2¢	1.5%	+0.0%	HOLD

Division Winner Markets

6 divisions · 10 buy signals

AL East

Team	Pred Wins	Market	Model	Edge	Signal
NYY	96	34¢	54.6%	+20.6%	STRONG BUY
BAL	73	19¢	0.5%	-18.5%	STRONG FADE
TOR	87	26¢	12.6%	-12.9%	STRONG FADE
BOS	91	22¢	26.2%	+4.7%	BUY
TBR	84	2¢	6.0%	+3.5%	BUY

AL Central

Team	Pred Wins	Market	Model	Edge	Signal
DET	88	46¢	52.9%	+6.4%	STRONG BUY
MIN	73	8¢	3.7%	-4.8%	FADE
KCR	84	30¢	26.5%	-3.0%	FADE
CWS	70	2¢	1.7%	-0.8%	HOLD
CLE	81	16¢	15.2%	-0.3%	HOLD

AL West

Team	Pred Wins	Market	Model	Edge	Signal
TEX	90	20¢	41.5%	+22.1%	STRONG BUY
SEA	90	52¢	39.8%	-12.2%	STRONG FADE
HOU	84	24¢	16.2%	-7.3%	STRONG FADE
OAK	75	6¢	2.4%	-4.2%	FADE
LAA	64	2¢	0.1%	-1.9%	HOLD

NL East

Team	Pred Wins	Market	Model	Edge	Signal
PHI	95	30¢	69.1%	+39.1%	STRONG BUY
ATL	82	30¢	9.1%	-20.9%	STRONG FADE
NYM	87	36¢	21.2%	-15.3%	STRONG FADE
MIA	71	3¢	0.6%	-2.4%	FADE
WSN	62	2¢	0.0%	-2.0%	HOLD

NL Central

Team	Pred Wins	Market	Model	Edge	Signal
MIL	97	26¢	53.7%	+28.2%	STRONG BUY
PIT	73	14¢	0.4%	-14.1%	STRONG FADE
CHC	95	46¢	38.0%	-8.6%	STRONG FADE
CIN	85	16¢	7.4%	-8.1%	STRONG FADE
STL	75	3¢	0.6%	-2.4%	FADE

NL West

Team	Pred Wins	Market	Model	Edge	Signal
LAD	94	82¢	53.8%	-28.7%	STRONG FADE
SDP	90	10¢	30.5%	+21.0%	STRONG BUY
ARI	82	3¢	6.5%	+3.5%	BUY
SFG	84	6¢	9.2%	+2.7%	BUY
COL	52	1¢	0.0%	-1.0%	HOLD

Playoff Qualifier Markets

30 markets · 10 buy signals

Team	Pred Wins	Market	Model	Edge	Signal
BAL	73	49¢	7.7%	-41.3%	STRONG FADE
MIL	97	50¢	89.0%	+38.5%	STRONG BUY
ATL	82	60¢	26.7%	-33.3%	STRONG FADE
PIT	73	32¢	4.5%	-28.0%	STRONG FADE
TEX	90	42¢	69.7%	+27.7%	STRONG BUY
SDP	90	46¢	67.0%	+20.5%	STRONG BUY
NYM	87	70¢	50.5%	-19.0%	STRONG FADE
CHC	95	66¢	83.3%	+17.8%	STRONG BUY
TBR	84	21¢	37.6%	+16.6%	STRONG BUY
NYY	96	73¢	89.5%	+16.6%	STRONG BUY
PHI	95	70¢	85.6%	+16.1%	STRONG BUY
BOS	91	60¢	74.2%	+13.7%	STRONG BUY
OAK	75	22¢	9.4%	-13.1%	STRONG FADE
LAA	64	12¢	0.5%	-12.0%	STRONG FADE
MIA	71	14¢	2.5%	-11.5%	STRONG FADE
LAD	94	92¢	82.2%	-10.3%	STRONG FADE
MIN	73	16¢	7.6%	-8.9%	STRONG FADE
TOR	87	64¢	55.7%	-8.3%	STRONG FADE
HOU	84	48¢	40.7%	-7.8%	STRONG FADE
DET	88	60¢	66.5%	+7.0%	STRONG BUY
SEA	90	74¢	68.8%	-5.7%	STRONG FADE
CIN	85	36¢	40.7%	+5.2%	STRONG BUY
STL	75	12¢	6.9%	-5.1%	STRONG FADE
WSN	62	5¢	0.2%	-4.8%	FADE
CWS	70	8¢	3.5%	-4.5%	FADE
COL	52	3¢	0.0%	-3.0%	FADE
ARI	82	29¢	26.4%	-2.6%	FADE
SFG	84	35¢	34.3%	-0.7%	HOLD
KCR	84	41¢	41.6%	+0.6%	HOLD
CLE	81	27¢	26.9%	-0.1%	HOLD

Win Total Over/Under Markets

210 markets · 108 buy signals · Sorted by edge

Team	Strike	Pred Wins	Market	Model P(Over)	Edge	Signal
BAL	80+	73	72¢	24.8%	-47.2%	STRONG FADE
BAL	85+	73	57¢	10.8%	-46.7%	STRONG FADE
MIL	90+	97	38¢	81.3%	+42.8%	STRONG BUY
MIL	95+	97	19¢	61.7%	+42.6%	STRONG BUY
MIL	85+	97	56¢	93.1%	+37.6%	STRONG BUY
BAL	75+	73	79¢	45.1%	-33.9%	STRONG FADE
NYY	95+	96	24¢	58.3%	+33.8%	STRONG BUY
COL	65+	52	40¢	7.2%	-33.2%	STRONG FADE
LAA	80+	64	36¢	3.1%	-32.4%	STRONG FADE
ATL	90+	82	50¢	17.2%	-32.3%	STRONG FADE
COL	55+	52	69¢	37.2%	-31.8%	STRONG FADE
MIL	80+	97	67¢	98.1%	+31.1%	STRONG BUY
PHI	85+	95	59¢	89.7%	+30.7%	STRONG BUY
LAA	85+	64	31¢	0.7%	-30.3%	STRONG FADE
TBR	80+	84	40¢	70.8%	+30.3%	STRONG BUY
PIT	80+	73	52¢	21.7%	-29.8%	STRONG FADE
CLE	65+	81	68¢	97.8%	+29.8%	STRONG BUY
NYY	85+	96	63¢	92.6%	+29.6%	STRONG BUY
SDP	75+	90	68¢	97.5%	+29.5%	STRONG BUY
BOS	75+	91	69¢	98.1%	+29.1%	STRONG BUY
HOU	70+	84	68¢	96.7%	+28.7%	STRONG BUY
CIN	65+	85	71¢	99.5%	+28.5%	STRONG BUY
OAK	95+	75	29¢	0.8%	-28.2%	STRONG FADE
MIA	90+	71	29¢	1.0%	-28.0%	STRONG FADE
SDP	85+	90	48¢	76.4%	+27.9%	STRONG BUY
DET	75+	88	68¢	95.5%	+27.5%	STRONG BUY
COL	60+	52	46¢	18.6%	-27.4%	STRONG FADE
LAA	75+	64	38¢	10.7%	-27.3%	STRONG FADE
PHI	90+	95	47¢	74.1%	+27.1%	STRONG BUY
LAA	65+	64	77¢	50.0%	-27.0%	STRONG FADE
KCR	70+	84	69¢	95.9%	+26.9%	STRONG BUY
CHC	90+	95	46¢	73.2%	+26.8%	STRONG BUY
NYM	105+	87	28¢	1.4%	-26.6%	STRONG FADE
CIN	75+	85	64¢	90.6%	+26.6%	STRONG BUY
LAD	105+	94	36¢	9.7%	-26.3%	STRONG FADE
TEX	75+	90	71¢	97.2%	+26.2%	STRONG BUY
NYY	90+	96	54¢	79.6%	+26.1%	STRONG BUY
STL	65+	75	64¢	90.6%	+26.1%	STRONG BUY
TEX	90+	90	26¢	52.0%	+26.0%	STRONG BUY
TEX	80+	90	64¢	90.2%	+25.7%	STRONG BUY
MIL	75+	97	74¢	99.6%	+25.6%	STRONG BUY
TEX	85+	90	50¢	74.9%	+25.4%	STRONG BUY
SFG	70+	84	71¢	96.3%	+25.3%	STRONG BUY
PIT	85+	73	33¢	8.1%	-24.9%	STRONG FADE
TEX	65+	90	75¢	99.9%	+24.9%	STRONG BUY
BAL	90+	73	28¢	3.6%	-24.9%	STRONG FADE
CIN	80+	85	51¢	75.6%	+24.6%	STRONG BUY
TBR	65+	84	75¢	99.2%	+24.2%	STRONG BUY
LAD	100+	94	49¢	24.8%	-24.2%	STRONG FADE
DET	100+	88	32¢	8.1%	-23.9%	STRONG FADE

Showing top 50 of 210 win total markets (sorted by edge)

World Series Edge Distribution

Methodology

World Series: P(WS) = P(playoffs) × P(WS | playoffs), scaled by relative team strength. Divisions: Division winner probability from 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Playoffs: Playoff probability from simulations (includes division winners + wild cards). Win Totals: P(wins ≥ strike) via normal CDF with continuity correction using predicted mean and standard deviation. Market prices are mid-point of Kalshi orderbook. Edge thresholds: ±2% for signals, ±5% for strong signals.