Baltimore Orioles
BAL • 2026 Season Prediction
2026 Outlook
🟡 Wild Card Bubble 8% playoff probabilityAs the 2026 MLB season approaches, the Baltimore Orioles find themselves in a familiar position - on the cusp of contention, but still searching for that elusive playoff berth. With a projected win total of 73 and a 7.7% chance of reaching the postseason, the Orioles are firmly in the Wild Card bubble, a testament to the steady progress they've made in recent years.
The backbone of this Orioles squad lies in their young, promising core. Slugger Pete Alonso continues to anchor the lineup, providing both power and consistency with his 38 home runs and .272 batting average. Alongside him, the emergence of Gunnar Henderson and Jordan Westburg has given the Orioles a potent middle of the order, while the versatile Taylor Ward brings additional pop and outfield coverage. On the mound, the rotation is headlined by the electric Trevor Rogers, who posted a remarkable 1.81 ERA in 2025, and the veteran presence of Chris Bassitt, whose experience and steady hand will be crucial for the young Orioles pitching staff.
However, the Orioles still face challenges in rounding out their roster and addressing areas of weakness. The bullpen remains a question mark, and the team will need Keegan Akin to build on his solid 2025 campaign to provide reliable innings. If the Orioles can navigate these hurdles and get consistent production from their core players, they may just find themselves in the thick of the playoff race come September, ready to take the next step in their ongoing rebuilding process.
Strengths
Weaknesses
⚾ Kalshi Markets
View all →Will Baltimore win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship?
KXMLB-26-BAL
Market Price
4¢
Model Prob
0.3%
Edge
-3.2%
Bid/Ask
3¢/4¢
Will Baltimore be the 2026 AL East Division Winner
KXMLBALEAST-26-BAL
Market Price
19¢
Model Prob
0.5%
Edge
-18.5%
Bid/Ask
18¢/20¢
Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers
KXMLBPLAYOFFS-26-BAL
Market Price
49¢
Model Prob
7.7%
Edge
-41.3%
Bid/Ask
48¢/50¢
Will Baltimore win at least 80 games this season?
KXMLBWINS-BAL-26-T80
Market Price
72¢
Model Prob
24.8%
Edge
-47.2%
Bid/Ask
62¢/82¢
Will Baltimore win at least 85 games this season?
KXMLBWINS-BAL-26-T85
Market Price
57¢
Model Prob
10.8%
Edge
-46.7%
Bid/Ask
51¢/64¢
Will Baltimore win at least 75 games this season?
KXMLBWINS-BAL-26-T75
Market Price
79¢
Model Prob
45.1%
Edge
-33.9%
Bid/Ask
63¢/95¢
Will Baltimore win at least 90 games this season?
KXMLBWINS-BAL-26-T90
Market Price
28¢
Model Prob
3.6%
Edge
-24.9%
Bid/Ask
20¢/37¢
Will Baltimore win at least 95 games this season?
KXMLBWINS-BAL-26-T95
Market Price
18¢
Model Prob
0.9%
Edge
-17.1%
Bid/Ask
5¢/31¢
Will Baltimore win at least 65 games this season?
KXMLBWINS-BAL-26-T65
Market Price
78¢
Model Prob
83.9%
Edge
+5.9%
Bid/Ask
78¢/100¢
Will Baltimore win at least 70 games this season?
KXMLBWINS-BAL-26-T70
Market Price
72¢
Model Prob
66.8%
Edge
-5.2%
Bid/Ask
72¢/100¢
Predicted Wins
73
±4.1 standard deviation
Range: 67–80 wins (95% CI)
Kalshi Market Line
N/A
No market available
Edge vs Market
—
No edge calculation
Model Confidence
59%
Based on feature quality, historical accuracy, and prediction uncertainty