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2026 Season
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Houston Astros

HOU • 2026 Season Prediction

HOLD

2026 Outlook

🔵 Playoff Hopeful 41% playoff probability

The Houston Astros are poised to remain a formidable force in the 2026 MLB season, but with some key changes to their roster, it's hard to predict if they'll continue their recent dominance. The good news is that they'll still have the reliable duo of Jeremy Peña and Jose Altuve leading the way. Peña, in particular, has emerged as a true superstar, hitting over .300 with 17 homers last season, while Altuve remains a consistent power threat. However, the loss of Carlos Correa to free agency leaves a notable hole in the lineup that will need to be filled.

One bright spot for the Astros is the continued development of their pitching staff, anchored by the electric arm of Hunter Brown. The young right-hander had a breakout 2025 campaign, posting a 2.43 ERA, and will be looking to build on that success. Veteran reliever Josh Hader also gives the Astros a reliable option to close out games. However, the departure of Gerrit Cole has left a void in the rotation, and the Astros will need to find a way to replace his production.

With a projected win total of 84 and a 40.7% chance of making the playoffs, the Astros find themselves in the "playoff hopeful" category. While they may not be the juggernaut they've been in recent years, their core talent and ability to develop homegrown players should keep them competitive and in the hunt for a postseason berth.

Strengths

Solid core Balance

Weaknesses

Consistency Competition

⚾ Kalshi Markets

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Will Houston win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship?

KXMLB-26-HOU

HOLD

Market Price

Model Prob

2.6%

Edge

-0.9%

Bid/Ask

3¢/4¢

Will Houston be the 2026 AL West Division Winner

KXMLBALWEST-26-HOU

STRONG FADE

Market Price

24¢

Model Prob

16.2%

Edge

-7.3%

Bid/Ask

23¢/24¢

Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers

KXMLBPLAYOFFS-26-HOU

STRONG FADE

Market Price

48¢

Model Prob

40.7%

Edge

-7.8%

Bid/Ask

47¢/50¢

Will Houston win at least 70 games this season?

KXMLBWINS-HOU-26-T70

STRONG BUY

Market Price

68¢

Model Prob

96.7%

Edge

+28.7%

Bid/Ask

68¢/100¢

Will Houston win at least 65 games this season?

KXMLBWINS-HOU-26-T65

STRONG BUY

Market Price

76¢

Model Prob

99.3%

Edge

+23.3%

Bid/Ask

76¢/100¢

Will Houston win at least 95 games this season?

KXMLBWINS-HOU-26-T95

STRONG FADE

Market Price

32¢

Model Prob

10.3%

Edge

-21.7%

Bid/Ask

0¢/32¢

Will Houston win at least 75 games this season?

KXMLBWINS-HOU-26-T75

STRONG BUY

Market Price

73¢

Model Prob

88.8%

Edge

+15.8%

Bid/Ask

57¢/89¢

Will Houston win at least 80 games this season?

KXMLBWINS-HOU-26-T80

STRONG BUY

Market Price

59¢

Model Prob

72.4%

Edge

+13.4%

Bid/Ask

43¢/75¢

Will Houston win at least 85 games this season?

KXMLBWINS-HOU-26-T85

FADE

Market Price

52¢

Model Prob

49.0%

Edge

-2.5%

Bid/Ask

51¢/52¢

Will Houston win at least 90 games this season?

KXMLBWINS-HOU-26-T90

HOLD

Market Price

26¢

Model Prob

25.9%

Edge

+0.4%

Bid/Ask

12¢/39¢

Predicted Wins

84

±0.2 standard deviation

Range: 84–85 wins (95% CI)

Kalshi Market Line

N/A

No market available

Edge vs Market

No edge calculation

Model Confidence

98%

Based on feature quality, historical accuracy, and prediction uncertainty

Prediction Distribution