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2026 Season
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Seattle Mariners

SEA • 2026 Season Prediction

HOLD

2026 Outlook

🟢 Contender 69% playoff probability

The Seattle Mariners are poised for another strong season in 2026, building on their impressive performance in recent years. With a talented roster and a winning mentality, the Mariners are well-positioned to make a deep playoff run and potentially challenge for the American League pennant.

Much of the Mariners' success will hinge on the continued production of their star players. Catcher Cal Raleigh has emerged as one of the league's most powerful hitters, blasting 60 home runs in 2025, while outfielder Julio Rodríguez remains a dynamic threat at the plate and on the basepaths. Additionally, the offseason acquisition of outfielder Randy Arozarena has added another potent bat to the lineup, complementing the steady presence of first baseman Josh Naylor.

On the pitching side, the Mariners boast a solid rotation led by the likes of Bryan Woo and Luis Castillo, backed by the electric relief arm of Andrés Muñoz. With a well-rounded roster and a proven track record of success, the Mariners are primed to win 90 games and hold a 68.8% probability of reaching the playoffs, solidifying their status as a true contender in the 2026 MLB season.

Strengths

Star power Depth

Weaknesses

Expectations Division

⚾ Kalshi Markets

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Will Seattle win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship?

KXMLB-26-SEA

STRONG FADE

Market Price

11¢

Model Prob

5.3%

Edge

-5.7%

Bid/Ask

10¢/12¢

Will Seattle be the 2026 AL West Division Winner

KXMLBALWEST-26-SEA

STRONG FADE

Market Price

52¢

Model Prob

39.8%

Edge

-12.2%

Bid/Ask

51¢/53¢

Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers

KXMLBPLAYOFFS-26-SEA

STRONG FADE

Market Price

74¢

Model Prob

68.8%

Edge

-5.7%

Bid/Ask

72¢/77¢

Will Seattle win at least 105 games this season?

KXMLBWINS-SEA-26-T105

STRONG FADE

Market Price

27¢

Model Prob

3.2%

Edge

-23.8%

Bid/Ask

0¢/27¢

Will Seattle win at least 80 games this season?

KXMLBWINS-SEA-26-T80

STRONG BUY

Market Price

69¢

Model Prob

89.6%

Edge

+20.6%

Bid/Ask

69¢/100¢

Will Seattle win at least 75 games this season?

KXMLBWINS-SEA-26-T75

STRONG BUY

Market Price

78¢

Model Prob

97.0%

Edge

+19.0%

Bid/Ask

78¢/100¢

Will Seattle win at least 100 games this season?

KXMLBWINS-SEA-26-T100

STRONG FADE

Market Price

22¢

Model Prob

10.8%

Edge

-11.2%

Bid/Ask

8¢/36¢

Will Seattle win at least 95 games this season?

KXMLBWINS-SEA-26-T95

STRONG FADE

Market Price

36¢

Model Prob

27.1%

Edge

-8.9%

Bid/Ask

20¢/52¢

Will Seattle win at least 85 games this season?

KXMLBWINS-SEA-26-T85

BUY

Market Price

70¢

Model Prob

73.8%

Edge

+3.8%

Bid/Ask

56¢/84¢

Will Seattle win at least 90 games this season?

KXMLBWINS-SEA-26-T90

FADE

Market Price

54¢

Model Prob

50.5%

Edge

-3.5%

Bid/Ask

53¢/55¢

Predicted Wins

90

±0.6 standard deviation

Range: 89–91 wins (95% CI)

Kalshi Market Line

N/A

No market available

Edge vs Market

No edge calculation

Model Confidence

94%

Based on feature quality, historical accuracy, and prediction uncertainty

Prediction Distribution